Shower thought from yesterday. The timing and magnitude of entrepreneurial success depends on 3 things: skill, luck, and pain tolerance. Skill and luck determine the duration of trudging through obstacles while searching for the correct path. Pain tolerance determines the amount of a time a person or team is willing to continue trudging without positive signals. I think this model applies to both startups and search funds.
Not exactly a fully formed thought, but this blog has been nascent for too long.
One additional note – market timing may be a product of either skill or luck.
Lovable identified the website creation power of LLMs early in the chatgpt era and capitalized on it. I would call this skill.
Bitcoin miners built data centers in places with cheap electricity, and the crypto mining industry became hyper competitive and low margin. Then AI exploded and those assets become an order of magnitude more valuable. I would call this luck.
Noah's (Life) Ark 