It’s been too long since I last published a post. So here is an update on things that are top of mind.
Post Sloan Location
For the past several months, I’ve told friends that I’m going to live in either Boston or NYC after I graduate. I usually put the odds at 60/40 for NYC/BOS. My current lease ends around August 3rd, so I need to make a decision in the next 6ish weeks. Some considerations:
- My probable business partner is moving to NYC to start a job, and the more time we can spend working together in-person, the better.
- Both cities have strong startup scenes. NYC’s is better for Xpanse Data, but I think the benefits relative to Boston are marginal.
- I’m trying to meet the right lady and am pretty tired of the Boston dating scene. BUT I know I don’t want to live in NYC long-term, so that could complicate things if I meet the right girl there? All advice, and setups, are welcomed.
- I have a lot of family/friends in NYC, but also have plenty in Boston. There’s a good chance all 3 of my siblings will be in NYC, so this could be a unique opportunity for the 4 of us to live in the same place again.
- I like living in Boston more. It’s pretty and clean. And it’s easier to have a car here for quick, 2 hour access to New Hampshire. NYC is challenging to escape on weekends.
I may, however, defer this decision. Options include extending my Cambridge lease for 1-2 months and visiting NYC at least 1/month to work with my partner and see everyone. Or I could find a furnished 3 month sublet in NYC for the fall and try it out. One of these paths may make more sense than singing a 1 year lease in either place. Stay tuned.
Xpanse Data
We’ve recently made meaningfully progress on Xpanse. I’m cautiously optimistic about the value-add of our new product and have booked several meetings with potential customers. Our short-term goal is very clear: get 1 of them to start paying us. We haven’t asked anyone for money up to this point, so we will either close a deal, or learn a lot more about why we can’t sell the product. Either outcome will push the ball forward.
Business Musings
I’m currently listening to The Snowball audiobook (the definitive Warren Buffett biography), and have resumed reading Atlas Shrugged (a philosophical novel on capitalism and society). Each is quickly becoming one of my favorite books. Warning though, they are both incredibly long! I also watched a good portion of the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting yesterday, which inspired some reflection on what matters in business.
My takeaway was that the most important factor to consider when building (or buying) a business is the quality of competition. Consider 3 example startup opportunities:
- Build relatively simple software to serve easily accessible customers. For example, a notetaking app. On the product side, this business competes with software developers from all over the world as well as large incumbents. On the distribution side, this business has no edge in digital advertising or SEO. Hyper competition abounds.
- Build slightly more complicated software to serve hard to reach customers. For example, data science software for institutional investors. On the product side, this business competes with sophisticated incumbents (technology is not new to finance…) as well as financially literate startups. On the distribution side, this business faces less competition than the notetaking app, as it’s hard to get hedge funds to talk to you without the correct background/network, but it faces skilled competitors. This business has its work cut out for it. Yes, this is my business.
- Build a “physical world” business in a sleepy industry using a first principles / software driven approach. Maybe not the best example, but I came across an industrial staffing startup called Traba. The founder experienced industrial staffing problems firsthand in a previous job (distribution advantage – software developers have no familiarity) and their competition is comprised of unsophisticated, legacy incumbents (product advantage). Big market and (arguably) weak competitors, jackpot.
My take on Buffett is that he followed a competition minimization strategy until size forced him to play in competitive arenas. He started out investing in small cap stocks (less competition) and when he got to the point of acquiring entire companies, he typically approached the businesses when they weren’t actively looking to sell (less competition from other buyers). Furthermore he stuck to businesses that he confidently understood (reducing the risk of competing against players with an analytical edge on him). He’s also clearly a genius, so beware of reverse causality.
Financial Markets
These days I pretty much just cheer on gold. I’ve learned that the problem with making macro bets is that it is difficult to build conviction in a quantified fair value price for the security (i.e. based on my analysis, gold is worth X$/oz). The lack of a firm price anchor makes trading challenging unless one is very tuned in to current market/financial/economic conditions, which I am not. Regardless, I continue to believe that my long-term gold thesis is intact: progressively diminishing US fiscal situation + longer-term supply side inflationary pressures → sustained USD debasement. We shall see.
Running
I watched the Boston Marathon a couple of weeks ago, and like many of the spectators, thought to myself, “Wow this awesome. I should run more. Could I ever qualify for this race?”* I didn’t impulsively sign up for a marathon, but my interest in running is growing. I’m dipping a toe into slightly structured training to see how my body responds and if I enjoy it. I’m focused on executing 3 runs/week: 1 short and slow, 1 tempo/threshold, and 1 long and slow. I’m trying to be intentional about injury prevention via warm ups, stretching/rolling, and yoga 1/week. So far I feel good. It could be a big running summer.
Bottom line – I’m excited about Xpanse. I’m annoyed that I’m single. I miss my grandfather. He loved reading these posts and always sent me a multiple paragraph response with wise words and excessive emojis.
-Noah
*The technical qualifying time for prime aged men is a 3 hour marathon (~6:50/mile pace). Due to high demand, getting a spot in the Boston Marathon actually requires you to run 5-10 mins faster than the 3 hour mark. If I did decide to attempt a 3 hour marathon (ignoring Boston qualification) – how ambitious is that goal? My half marathon PR is a 7:10/mile pace. The internet suggests that you should be able to run at least a 6:30/mile pace during a half. So I would need to drop 45 seconds/mile from my half marathon pace and put in the necessary training volume to last a full 26 miles. Ambitious? Absolutely. Impossible? I don’t think so, but there’s only one way to find out…
Noah's (Life) Ark 